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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd